2022年3月18日，俄罗斯刚刚用远程巡航导弹KH555攻击了乌克兰的立沃夫（Lviv）飞机修理厂（LSARP）。3月19日，俄罗斯就报道说采用匕首导弹（KH-47M2）攻击了位于乌克兰Ivano-Frankivsk区域（和北约罗马尼亚有50km边界）Deliatyn村的乌克兰地下武器仓库。这个武器仓库据说是早期苏联建设的“三防”设施，据说其中存放了大量的武器装备，还有来自美帝赞助的武器。俄罗斯在Twitter发布了一段视频，可以看到导弹命中了几个并排房子中的一座，引发了燃烧和浓烟，但是正如Twitter上面的评价一下，没有看到二次爆炸，因此有可能仅仅摧毁了入口通道，而不是武器库本身，从威力看，一枚匕首导弹也未必能摧毁一个地下武器库。但是从精度看，确实很准确。不偏不倚，击中一个大约35米x14米见方的建筑。由于没有看到乌克兰的答复，具体什么情况，就不得而知了。
俄罗斯的官方说法如下，大意就是：我已经提醒过你们了，不要给乌克兰送武器。”The Kinzhal aviation missile system with hypersonic aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region,” The Kremlin said on Saturday. “We clearly said that any cargo moving into Ukrainian territory which we would believe is carrying weapons would be fair game,” the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with state-run RT on Friday.
一、先看看轰炸了什么地方。
The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage that it claimed shows a Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missile striking an underground weapons depot in Ukraine. Russian Ministry of Defense/Twitter
具体可以看网上的视频（文后），但是具体位置是哪里，有网友给出了分析，但是也没有准确定位。
有网友分析是在Deliatyn村西部的一处设施，如果真的说Deliatyn村有军事设施的话，那么确实应该是在这个地方。为什么这么说呢？因为Deliatyn村全域都是小民房，村里最好的建筑就是教堂和学校，其他都是小民房，款式多样，体积很小。只有这个区看的出来是一个官方的设施，建筑物比较规整，建筑物都很大，设施也很全，例如有一所学校，也有内部的休闲广场，整个位置相对隐蔽，一下子就让我想起来了新疆红山。也是类似的布局。只有公路弯弯曲曲的进入这个相对封闭的区域，路上可能还会设置检查岗。这片设施依山而建，可能三防设施就在山体内，便于提供在核攻击下的生存能力。
左侧是军事设施全貌，右侧是可能的攻击点，这个和视频的样子差别很大，不知道是否识别错误，或者说由于2019年的夏季地图和2022年的春季战场差别很大。
Deliatyn村的全貌和布局，可以看到村里有火车站，但是距离可能的攻击位置还是有些远，单从交通方面看，这个存放地点真赶不上同处“Ivano-Frankivsk”区域的Ivano-Frankivsk国际机场，距离Deliatyn村直线距离42km。
位于Ivano-Frankivsk地区，Krykhivtsi村附近的乌克兰Ivano-Frankivsk国际机场，这是一个军民合用机场。
机场上的28架米格29战机（2020年1月），机场后方有大量的物资存放点。上面有28架Mig29战斗机，如果乌克兰一共才53架米格29战机，则这是最大的乌克兰米格29基地了。
二、再看看俄罗斯是咋玩匕首的。
KH-47M2（Kinzhal /Dagger，匕首）是俄罗斯宣称的“不可战胜”的高超音速导弹，可以达到10倍音速。匕首导弹是由俄罗斯米格-31K，3倍音速重型战斗机发射的。匕首导弹是普金于2018年发布的六大战略级武器之一，普金宣称这个武器是“不可战胜的”。不可战胜有几个方面的含义：首先是速度，10倍音速让所有反导武器都几乎没有反应时间。其次是发射方向，由于匕首是空中发射，很难通过提前部署早期预警雷达来防守。最后还有弹道，匕首没采用常规弹道，而是有些类似DF-17，采用了较低的弹道飞行。可以说这种武器确实是新型武器。但是我记得兔子随后也在H-6上搭载了DF-15试射。看上去是学习了一下匕首。考虑到兔子有DF-17乘波体导弹，应该说各有所长。但是兔子缺少米格31这种载机。
从各种媒体看俄罗斯早就开始在西北方向部署米格31K和匕首，2022年2月初就在北海飞地Kaliningrad Chkalovsk部署了米格31K和匕首导弹，威慑北约。2022年2月中俄罗斯在战略威慑力量演练上发射了匕首导弹，看来是早有布局。而且俄罗斯相当擅长用战略武器做文章，2021年还用米格31+匕首威胁了叙利亚的恐怖分子和幕后大佬。下面用倒叙来列出这些图片。
February 19, 2022：A Russian servicemen examines a Kinzhal hypersonic missile before a flight of the MiG-31K fighter jet during the Russian strategic deterrence forces exercises in February
February 19, 2022：This handout video grab shows a MiG-31K Russian fighter jet carrying a Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile during the Grom 2022 Strategic Deterrence Force exercise at an undefined location in Russia [Russian Defence Ministry via AFP]
February 19, 2022：A Russian Air Force MiG-31 fighter jet releases Kinzhal hypersonic missile during a drill in an unknown location in Russia, in this still image taken from video released February 19, 2022. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry/Handout via REUTERS
February 7 2022：Status-6 @Archer83Able Feb 7 A Russian MiG-31K carrying a Kinzhal ballistic missile was spotted landing at the Kaliningrad Chkalovsk airbase on February 7. Geolocation: 54.766794, 20.432911 , Kaliningrad Chkalovsk
February 7 2022：Kaliningrad Chkalovsk基地附近的米格31K和匕首导弹
February 7 2022：在北海飞地的Kaliningrad Chkalovsk空军基地部署米格31K和匕首导弹，除了西班牙，可以威慑所有欧洲国家
June 25, 2021：A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet carrying a Kinzhal missile takes off from the Hemeimeem air base in Syria on June 25, 2021 Credit: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
Victory Day Parade in Moscow in 2018：A Russian MiG-31K armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missile during the Victory Day Parade in Moscow in 2018. (Wikimedia Commons)
可以看到有编号90、96和3X的米格31K携带过匕首导弹。下面还可以看到97号。
三、最后看看匕首的能力。
KH-47M2 Kinzhal（“匕首”）是俄罗斯能力的超声波航空战略空对导弹。攻击距离超过2,000公里（1,200英里），10马赫速度，以及在其飞行中的每个阶段都避免反导系统的能力。 匕首可以承载常规和核弹头，可以从TU-22M3轰炸机或MIG-31K战斗机发射。 目前已经部署在俄罗斯南部军区和西部军区的空中集团。匕首导弹于2017年12月服役，是2018年3月1日普京发布的六种新俄罗斯战略武器之一。匕首导弹旨在击中北约的战舰对欧洲俄罗斯战略导弹系统构成威胁，并摧毁北约导弹防御系统和弹道导弹防御船和靠近俄罗斯边界的土地物品。据称旨在克服任何已知或计划的美国空气或导弹防御系统，包括MIM-104爱国者，THAAD防御系统和AEGIS作战系统。导弹第一阶段可能与9k720 iskander共享，并据此设计了指令部分。匕首可以击中静态和移动目标，如航空母舰。在发射后几秒钟内，导弹加速到高超声速，并在飞行中的所有阶段进行机动，以逃避敌人的导弹防御。俄罗斯媒体声称导弹的攻击范围是2,000公里（1,200英里; 1,100 NMI，Tu22M3发射），和3,000公里（1,900英里; 1,600 NMI，MIG-31K发射）。
匕首的基本参数
匕首的地平弹道
编号为97的米格31K也携带过匕首导弹。
携带匕首导弹的米格31双机编队，看起来，已经相当成熟了
小结：和KH101攻击立沃夫空军修理厂的情况类似。匕首也是战略武器在战术中的使用，看上去大材小用，实际上却有巨大的威慑作用，让乌克兰和亲乌势力受到巨大的威慑。如此远的射程已经让后方变为前方。如此高的精度，让所有人惴惴不安。
相关信息:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal
https://ussanews.com/russia-uses-hypersonic-missiles-in-strike-on-ukraine-arms-depot/
Geolocation: 54.766794, 20.432911 , Kaliningrad Chkalovsk
https://eurasiantimes.com/mig-31k-armed-with-putins-invincible-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile/
附录：
The Kh-47 Kinzhal (“Dagger”) missile, which can be seen on the MiG’s belly, has an estimated range of 1,240 miles. The missile is capable of carrying either a 1,100-pound fragmentation warhead or a 500-kiloton nuclear warhead, which is 33 times more powerful than the Fat Man bomb used on Hiroshima. It flies at nearly 10 times the speed of sound (more than 2 miles per second) and follows a flatter trajectory than a standard ballistic missile, giving air defenses little time to react. The Kinzhal is said to be competent in precision attacks as well as targeting moving targets with the help of a radar seeker.
In his State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly in March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed the project for the Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic missile platform. Putin praised the Kinzhal and other missile systems as “invincible” weapons capable of evading enemy defenses as he declared Russia’s superiority in the field. The missile made its first public appearance during Moscow’s Victory Day parade in 2018. For the first time in June 2021, Russia deployed two interceptor aircraft capable of carrying the Kinzhal hypersonic missile to Syria for war games.
The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (“dagger”) is a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM). The Kinzhal entered service in December 2017 and is one of the six new Russian strategic weapons unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 1 March 2018. It has a claimed range of more than 2,000 km (1,200 mi), Mach 10 speed, and an ability to perform evasive maneuvers at every stage of its flight. It can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and can be launched from Tu-22M3 bombers or MiG-31K interceptors. Kinzhal missile is the airborne version of the Iskander tactical missile system.
in June 2021 MiG-31K jets with Kinzhal were on duty only in the Southern Military District. A test squadron of ten MiG-31K was deployed there in December 2017. In early 2021, Central district Commander Alexander Lapin said the 712th fighter jet regiment in Kansk would be armed with Kinzhal by 2024. General Chief-of-Staff Valery Gerasimov said MiG-31K with Kinzhal was tested in the Arctic. The aircraft may be deployed in the Northern fleet and other districts.
“The test operation of Kinzhal has been ongoing for a long time. There is a squadron of MiG-31K with the air ballistic missile developed from the ground-based ballistic missile of Iskander,” expert Viktor Murakhovsky said. “The range of the missile fired by an aircraft comprises 2,000 kilometers, according to Defense Ministry data. Thus, Kinzhal is a major element of strategic non-nuclear deterrence. It can maneuver in flight to complicate interception. Officials said it is practically impossible for existing air and missile defense to intercept a maneuvering missile flying at a speed of Mach 10,” he said in June 2021.