军事爱好者肯定都会“喜欢”研究战争,特别是其中的装备和战略战术,通常对战争的背景不用太关心,因为背景往往是清晰明确的。这次俄乌之战打到现在,看了国内各种新闻也没弄明白到底是什么原因,估计短时间也弄不明白原因了。之前写过一些调研文章,主要是基于卫星地图做了点状分析,没有什么深度,也不涉及到进展跟踪和背景(文后附)。知乎有时候会推荐一些战况分析,主要是细节的摧毁坦克数量等等,仔细看了基本是外网转发的内容,因此想到或许可以试试。辗转查询了一些信息,发现有一些网站每天都在跟踪战事进展,多数是新闻媒体。这些网站会分析战争背景,但是也没看到结论。转发几个链接和部分信息,供参考。
一、ONData每日战报。
这个网站算是每日战报,不会细节到摧毁几辆坦克,打死几个人,但是会有时局分析,相对宏观。
二、路透社宏观分析
https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/zdpxokdxzvx/
这个是西方媒体,一边倒支持乌克兰,有些宏观分析很容易看懂,具体背后的用意需要自行甄别,例如是不是有意隐瞒了对乌克兰有益的信息。
战争局势图
难民迁移图
Ukraine’s armed forces of more than 200,000 service members, not including the paramilitary, are less than a quarter the size of Russia’s. However, they have been significantly boosted since 2014 by Western military aid, including supplies of U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles and Turkish drones.
Main gas waypoints between Russia and Europe:Gas flows in billion cubic metres of capacity per year
Source: Worldpop.org; World Data; Natural Earth; United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)。Ukraine’s population centers:Roughly 44 million people live in Ukraine with nearly 3 million in the capital city of Kyiv. Russia’s influence looms large, particularly in the urban, industrial east where Russian is the predominant language in many districts along the Ukrainian border as well as in Crimea in the south.
NATO deployments in Europe:On Feb. 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country would continue to seek to join the NATO transatlantic military alliance despite pressure from Russia, which has demanded NATO roll back from eastern Europe and has said NATO deployments in Ukraine would be a “red line.”
三、BBC战况跟踪
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
注意这是西方反动媒体,一边倒支持乌克兰,主要是跟踪各条战线的进展。内容和用意要自行甄别,一些宏观数据可以研究。
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, but its forces withdrew from around the capital Kyiv and surrounding regions to Belarus and western Russia in early April. Russia has since refocused its efforts on taking control of the east and south of Ukraine.
The port city of Mariupol, which has been encircled since the start of March, is now mostly under the control of Russian forces – although several hundred Ukrainian troops are believed to remain in the Azovstal metalworks factory in the south of the city.
To the west, Russia has been attempting to push towards Odesa, with the aim of cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, but their advances stalled at Mykolaiv.
四、半岛电台Al Jazeera
这个媒体相对中立,至少在本次俄乌冲突中还算中立。主要是跟踪了热点地区的战况,采用了问答式,摘录一些放到下面
Who controls what in Mariupol? Russian forces resumed air, artillery and ground attacks on the Azovstal steel plant following evacuations. A convoy of buses left Mariupol on Wednesday morning in a fresh attempt to evacuate citizens, according to the governor of Donetsk.
Russia and Ukraine were part of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared independence on August 24. The map below shows when each of these countries declared independence.
After independence, Ukraine moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West. Over the past 30 years, Ukraine has been led by seven presidents. The country has had a rocky path towards democracy with two revolutions, first in 2005 and then in 2014. Both times, protesters rejected Russia’s supremacy and sought a path to join the European Union and NATO.
Russia has one of the most powerful militaries in the world and ranks among the top five defence spenders.
Russia and Ukraine are both rich in oil and gas. Russia has the world’s highest proven gas reserves at 48,938 billion cubic metres. More than 70 percent of the country’s gas reserves are held by Gazprom, a state-owned energy giant.
之前写的关于俄乌冲突的点状调研文章: